The best game I have ever played on my phone is called Risk. Originally a board game, the online phone version was also made available. To explain it very briefly: it starts with occupied territories randomly assigned to you. Every round, you get a few additional troops and have to deploy them to territories strategically. And then you attack and occupy new territories. After that you can move troops from one territory to another one once. Once you occupy a continent, or more territories, you get more troops every round. Deploy. Attack. Fortify. Then next player. (I am not going to explain it in details here.)
You can learn many great lessons from the game. I will save most for another article, but one of the things is: you can see how irrational people are, and most commonly it is triggered by the urge for retaliation. Sophisticated players usually have consistent strategies for most of the game. But once the continent they have been occupying gets intruded, you can almost feel their upset through the screen. They shift their focus from victory to revenge. They may even exert all their power, like a moth to a flame. The one receiving revenge very often starts another round of attack, turning it into a cycle. I well use this phenomenon to my advantage, and this is one of the reasons why I barely lose now.
In Hong Kong, another game is going on. Everyone is hating (if not beating) everyone. The police brutally beat up protesters (not just arresting them), accidentally harm bystanders, and abuse tear gas; pro-government mobs attack protesters; protesters throw petrol bombs at the police. An old man died from getting hit accidentally by a brick thrown from the protesters’ side in a conflict. Another man was set on fire by an alleged protester. Chaos and chaos. Once a metropolis known for having low crime rate, order and peace, has now almost turned into a war zone of a civil war.
The anti-government side has been overwhelmingly dominated by emotions, not rationality. When I see how they act and listen to them, it reminds me of those players in the game Risk. Emotions are not necessarily bad, but when they keep you from learning from your failures, optimizing your strategies, re-evaluating the situation, then they are bad.
How can you tell irrationality became the dominant force?
Sunk cost fallacy: The sacrifice (the cost) that has incurred is known as sunk cost. Similar to the saying “don’t cry over spilled milk”, if you have already lost something, do not focus on it. Focus on the current situation, as if you are playing poker and those are the cards distributed to you at the beginning. Focus on the options which would maximize benefits and minimize costs.
The lack of cost-benefit analyses/risk assessment: an act could potentially create suffering and lead to no benefits at all. Sit down, take a deep breath, and think carefully about the situation. Acting based on intuition or impulsiveness could be disastrous. “We have to go out and fight (anyway)” is not a good idea. Don’t die for nothing.
He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.
– The Art of War
Overconfidence: believing that they will eventually “win”, whatever that means and based on no good reason. And this is very common in both armed conflicts and everyday life. One of the sayings you can hear is “justice will eventually win”. Maybe it is a good slogan, but it would only be true in the Disney World.
The lack of intelligent discussions: Most of the time, they talk about feelings. Talk about faith. Talk about confidence and perseverance. Create arts (e.g. paintings, songs). These are not bad, and may even be necessary. I understand why they are angry and hate the police. But intelligent discussions about strategies and analyses are more important.
Not knowing the situation or their “enemy”: You have to know what game you are playing. Yes, there are times when you can use violence to achieve liberty/justice, or even overthrow the government. But you have to know in your case, how plausible it is and exactly you can achieve that. As I said:
In terms of use of force/violence, the protesters would never win, because they are not just against the Hong Kong government, but also the Chinese Central Government.
– Why Doesn’t a Conflict End? (Oct 2019)
Also, the Chinese Communist Party fought in a war, won over the sovereign power and successfully maintained it for seven decades. If you assume that they are just stupid or easy to take down, guess who the stupid one really is.
False Dilemma: it is not either “we have to take action (implying a particular action)” or “we should just chill and do nothing”. It is about what options are on the table. The sense of “we have to do something (different)” is very strong (it gives us the feeling/illusion of having control) and somehow the natural conclusion is vigorous riots (or the support for it).
And so on and so forth. (I am using the anti-government/pro-democracy side as examples but of course, the other side can also be very irrational.)
Suppressing these things are against our nature, but they are crucial. This is why emotional intelligence is so important in our lives.
Irrationality can be destructive. But collective irrationality is even scarier. The impact is large-scale, and it makes it harder for individuals to think more rationally because of group-think. I write a lot about how sociality is important for our happiness. It is an essential element in human lives. But socialization does not only breed good things. When a group of people gather, they can exchange feelings and empathize with one another. Great. But they can also share and reinforce biases or false information. Not so great.
I criticize their being irrational. However, I totally sympathize with their irrationality. Under so much pressure, anger, repression, hopelessness in the whole society, it is quite natural. I am not claiming to be above them. I can be irrational as well for other things. Everyone has moments when rationality is suppressed by emotions, just in different circumstances. And politics does have the power of driving people crazy.
I think the biggest source of all these conflicts is: an overwhelming sense of injustice. The urge for punishment is rooted in our nature. In fact, in some other social animals as well. The brutal police officers (as well as many members of mobs) are not receiving punishment. And this turns into rage and many other emotions eventually, and in turn, irrationality.
The inaction and incompetence of the Hong Kong government is biggest cause of these conflicts.
What I am worried now is, at the end, the fruit of all the protests and riots, will be the stricter control of the governments (Beijing and Hong Kong). Top officials in Beijing will not let Hong Kong have autonomy or democracy.
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Another article for rationality:
Dream Big, Think Twice: Decision Making in Life, Business and Politics
Another article for protests in Hong Kong:
How Can Biology Help Explain a Protest?
The Observer Planet 